What stocks/ETFs to AIM

What stocks/ETFs to AIM in light of Peak Oil and Weather Wars (Hurricane Katrina)

Originally posted on Tom Veale's iHub AIM forum
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=949

/// My Original Post -- 2005-09-04 ///

"What to AIM for". Every so often we need to be and ARE reminded that we are skating on thin ice, and that it is cracking beneath our feet.

If you think things are going to be A-OK if you just get YOUR choice of President and/or Congress installed, if you think that we can continue to overpopulate and strip resources bare, you need to WAKE up.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

The war in Iraq *IS* for oil. "Democracy"? There (or here) -- Fuggedaboudit. Hurricanes can be steered. Katrina New Orleans was likely merely "collateral damage" in an effort to take out drilling and refining capacity. "Let the games begin?" They already have.

Google "Peak Oil" and "Weather Wars".

So think about what is in your AIM portfolio beyond the "latest and greatest" and the "kewlest" (coolest/hippest).

In Lichello's day, we could possibly be excused for thinking about long-term investments. Now? Possibly LD-AIM is more suitable for all? If not outright speculation.

AIM for Stock/ETF Profits -- Buy/Sell Calculator Program
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-stock-etf-transaction-calculator.php
Regards, DB

/// Response from RetireOnCSCO -- 2005-09-04 ///

>> The war in Iraq *IS* for oil.

Maybe not for oil, but certainly not for Democracy. It was payback for 9/11, lets be real.

>> Hurricanes can be steered

Now this is very amusing! You have lead me to a great series of websites that reminds me of the X-Files. All Government conspericies [sic] and all.

You are actually suggesting that the Government of the US steered Katrina into New Orleans to kill 100's of people, cause Billions of $ damage, for what? Who's going to help the Feds pay for all the $ they will now POUR INTO that area? I can see a business burning down buildings for insurance, but not this!

I have worked with some of the Governments's [sic] top people, and trust me, they aren't that organized to pull something like this off.

Also, why is it that cool (seemingly imposible [sic]) ideas like steering a hurricane wouldn't be used for good? Just like the X-Files, these outragous [sic] ideas are always behind some govertment [sic] plot.

What I don't understand about the link I found to Tom Bearden, is why startup companies (like Ballard Power in Canada) wouldn't jump on the idea of 'free' power?

Very amuzing.
John

/// My response to RetireOnCSCO -- 2005-09-04

RetireOnCSCO: There are three types of people: There are those that 1) make things happen, 2) are aware of things happening, and 3) are NOT of aware of what's happening. I am in category 2). You, with all due respect, seem to be in category 3).

It was payback for 9/11, lets be real.
Simply wrong. If you accept the official government line as to the plane highjackers, "we" should have bombed/invaded Egypt and/or Saudi Arabia and/or Iran instead of Iraq. Maybe even Russia or China.

Now, if you want to get into conspiracies, it is quite possible 9/11 was financed and/or allowed to happen by "black ops" U.S. government. That doesn't mean a puppet like "Bush the Younger" necessarily knows what's going on.

Hurricanes can be steered
I doubt you are a meteorologist. I am not one. Several "real life" meteorologists and other scientists say it IS possible.

I didn't say it was the U.S. government. I did mention "Weather Wars". But it is not impossible that the U.S. government did do it. Disasters, after all, are a great excuse for governments to step in and "save" us, necessitating more control (exercise of power).

Who's going to help the Feds pay for all the $$$ they will now POUR INTO that area?
YOU will. Few people, including likely yourself, realize that this world now runs on fiat and credit, not "money". YOU will pay with higher prices, not only on gasoline, but everything else dependent on petroleum. Your (and all the uncontrolled breeders') consumption has to be curtailed.
(You could also Google "fiat money", "credit money", etc., and also the section in the link of the original post about how the banking credit system we have has for about 500 years has become energy (petroleum) dependent.)

I have worked with some of the Governments's [sic] top people, and trust me, they aren't that organized to pull something like this off.
Depends on what area of government. The hidden arms don't have to worry about P.R., re-election, and publicly scrutinized funding.

Also, why is it that cool (seemingly imposible [sic]) ideas like steering a hurricane wouldn't be used for good? Just like the X-Files, these outragous [sic] ideas are always behind some govertment [sic] plot
Let's see, those who take the trouble to get hold of power are doing it for YOUR good, right? How naive.

...why startup companies (like Ballard Power in Canada) wouldn't jump on the idea of 'free' power?
IF it exists, maybe it's just that they are not 'authorized.' I doubt the 'free power' bit myself. If it exists, where is the toy as a demo, or the home kit (like kit airplanes, home solar stills, etc.)?

The miracle energy source is the last refuge of the sleeping sheep -- "well, I don't believe that there is an oil problem, but if there is, then hamster treadmills and 'zero-point' energy will save us." Even if feasible, there is the problem of switching the infrastructure.

Ballard (BLDP) has been headed for the dumpster for years. I had if for awhile and dumped it. It is in the fuel cell business. Hydrogen "power" is going nowhere. Ballard is kept alive only by subsidy. ENERGY is needed to make (electrolyze the water) the hydrogen needed to run the fuel cells. (You can also Google that. Also check out Brain Food.)

A guy falls off the top floor of a skyscraper. As he passes an open window on the 4th floor, someone inside hears him saying to himself "Hey, no problem so far."

AIM Calculator Price Range Calculation Feature for Percentage Price Move

The AIM Price Range Calculation feature allows you to determine the transaction prices required for a given desired percentage price move and for a given desired incremental dollar difference.

The calculator just calculates the next BUYs and SELLs for individual prices or for a range of prices. For record keeping, I just use a spreadsheet.

From the last line of the spreadsheet I enter into the calculator, manually, the stock symbol (optional), the present quantity held, the Portfolio Control (PoCo), and the cash held (optional). The cash held entry is used only when setting the minimum order as a percentage of the total account value -- the stock value plus the cash.

Also, from the spreadsheet I enter in the NET price of the last transaction. That last transaction could, naturally, be either a BUY or a SELL.

Refer to screenshot
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/graphics/aim_rangecalcex.gif

And a range calculation printout sample at
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/detail/aim_rangecalcex.txt

You will notice on the screenshot and the printout that, for this example, I have set the min BUY order for 5% of PoCo and the min SELL order for a fixed $125.00.

Given those entries, along with the SAFE settings, the minimum SELL price AIM will allow in this example is $7.32. This is shown right above the "No Transaction Zone" (aka the "Hold Zone") legend in the printout. The quantity to sell is 19. While the transaction price would be $7.32, the NET price you would get, considering a commission of $10.01, would be $6.793158. These values are all on the $7.32 transaction price row.

In the example, the previous NET price entered is $6.25. The percent NET price difference is then 8.69% and is shown in the next to last column of the $7.32 transaction price row.

The NET DOLLAR difference of $10.32 is shown in the last column of the row. (($6.793158 - $6.25) * 19 shares).

That $10.32 COULD be a profit or not. That depends on whether the last transaction was a BUY or a previous SELL.

By the way, I would not myself take that $7.32 transaction price transaction in this example. I would scan up the last two columns for the first transaction that meets both my personal percentage and dollar criteria.

Arbitrarily, for this example, if you wanted 10% that would mean a transaction price of at least $7.37 would be required. And if you wanted at least a $50 NET DOLLAR difference, that would require a transaction price of at least $7.79.

NOTE: You can enter in ANY price you want for the last NET price. So you could enter in the NET price for some transaction other than the very last one. That does NOT affect the Next BUY or Next SELL calculations based on the quantity held and PoCo. It WILL effect, naturally, the last two columns.

This FAQ is also at
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-stock-price-range-calculation.php

More AIM articles are at
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/index.php

AIM and Put Options

AIM and Puts -- For years I have heard of "protecting your stock position with Puts (put options)".

There are probably "millions" of books about options, but I came across "How to Make Money Trading Listed Puts" by Lin Tso. Dates from 1978 and only a few copies available used on Amazon. It's an excellent book with lots of examples, from just buying Puts to doing Put spreads.

How to Make Money Trading Listed Puts, by Lin Tso takes you to the Amazon info page.

A point of interest, p. 42:
"Trading for Down Fluctuations
Under the protective umbrella of a put option, one can play down fluctuations of the underlying stock.
This trading technique involves making a number of short-term transactions through buying the stock on dips and then selling the stock out on rallies. There is no limit to the number of trades that can be made against a particular put during the life of the option."

I don't know if Puts would be cost effective with standard AIM, as all or most of the $50 to $500 or so that a Put costs will usually disappear, so you have to make that amount and more on your AIM buys and sells during the life of the Put.

So, one of the more aggressive forms of AIM, like LD-AIM or ?? would be more suitable, if any at all are.

The Put would possibly solve one problem -- running out of cash for AIM Buys as the stock declines, as the Put would generate some on the stock price decline

And, again, volatility in the stock is needed, so that the AIM Buys and Sells within a range would offset the Put expiring worthless if the stock doesn't decline, or even rises.

Off the top of my head. Comments? Anyone played this?

AIM Stock/ETF Fixed Commission Transaction Calculator v7.2

The AIM Stock/ETF Fixed Commission Transaction Calculator v7.2 is now available.

In addition to the minor changes in v7.1 (see a previous post below),
a NET % and $ Difference pop-up display related to the current potential Transaction Price can now be toggled on the main screen.
This is in addition to the previous function of showing this information
for a RANGE of prices in the Price Range Calculation.

This is a text version of a typical popup you will see:

The proposed SELL Price of $3.080000
corresponds to a NET Price of $2.982639
The Previous NET Price entered is $3.771250

That is a NET Price difference of $-.788611
or -20.91%

The NET $ difference, based on 72 shares
is then $-56.77

You may also see some additional text if, as in this case, the
transaction is definitely not recommended:

NOT a recommended SELL transaction --
(A Sell, with % and $ NET Differences less than zero)

AIM program and contact information at:
AIM Stock/ETF Buy Low Sell High Transaction Calculator

What a Difference $1 Makes

A spreadsheet of Robert Lichello's "classic" 10-8-5-4-5-8-10 cycle can be downloaded through the link on the page AIM by-the-book classic buy low sell high spreadsheet study.

A modification using 10-7-5-4-5-7-10 gives nearly 50% better results over the same number of transactions, but at the expense of increased volatility and requiring ponying up additional cash during each cycle. (A "cash/total value" ratio of -4.55% near the end -- requires $27,339 to be added to a $600,821 account. The ending value, OTH, is +13.54% -- is +$196,399 cash in a $1,450,649 account.)

For a copy of the 10-7-5-4-5-7-10 spreadsheet, contact me through a contact link on one of my pages at AIM Core Position Trading.
Include "AIM spreadsheet" in your e-mail subject line.

AIM Stock/ETF Fixed Commission Transaction Calculator v7.1

The AIM Stock/ETF Fixed Commission Transaction Calculator v7.1 is now available.
This adds support for:
1) Larger transaction amounts and related values, such as PoCo, to 6 digits.
2) Additional paths to WordPad.
3) Some minor cosmetic changes.

Program and contact information at:
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-stock-etf-transaction-calculator.php
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-stock-etf-transaction-calculator.php

Any WordPad Problems with Your AIM Stock/ETF Buy/Sell Calculator Program?

I know of at least one instance where after doing a Price Range calculation, and you click on "Yes" to display the resulting list file (PriceLst.dat) in WordPad, nothing happens.

The file IS there; while not accessed automatically, it can still be accessed manually in WordPad or some other editor. But the convenience is lost. If this has been a problem, here is what you need to know.

First, questions for you to answer:

1) Do you have WordPad on your system?
2) Is it installed?
3) Where is it?

1) Do you have WordPad on your system?
WordPad is a standard application with Windows. Use the Taskbar Start Search function to search for "WordPad".
If you see in your Search Results file names like WORDPAD.EX_ (several files with a "_" as the last character of the file name extension), you have WordPad on your system.

2) Is it installed?
The next question is, is it installed? If so, you should see in your Search Results several WordPad file names with full 3-character file name extensions. These include EXE, CNT, FTG, FTS, GID, HLP, INF, and INI.

3) Where is it?
If installed, note the drive and directory where all the files named in step 2) are found.

Solving the Problem:

If you find files in 1) above but not in 2), then you have WordPad but it isn't installed. Do the Windows bit -- "Control Panel | Add or Remove Programs | Add/Remove Windows Components" -- and see if you can install it there. If that doesn't work, forget trying to get help from BillyBoy Microsucks Gates, just contact me (see below) and I'll send you a zip file with WordPad files in it.

The AIM calculator program v7.0 and prior looks for WordPad in the directory
"Program Files\Accessories" IN THE DRIVE FROM WHICH YOU ARE RUNNING THE CALCULATOR

Make sure there is a directory "Program Files\Accessories" in the drive from which you are running the calculator. If you are running from the C: drive, there may or may not be. If you are running from some other drive, there most likely WON'T be.

If necessary, create a directory and subdirectory "Program Files\Accessories" in the drive from which you are running the calculator. (Note that there is one space in "Program Files".)

If you have an installed version (file names have full 3-character file name extensions) of WordPad in some other drive/directory, COPY (don't MOVE) all those WordPad files to the "Program Files\Accessories" directory in the drive from which you are running the calculator.

If you had to get the files (zipped) from me, put the zip file in that directory and unzip it there. Run WordPad once from Windows Explorer that directory after unzipping it to see if it works. (If by chance it doesn't, contact me). Assuming it does work, then run the calculator program, doing a Price Range Calculation, and see if it works then. I'll assume it does, but if not, contact me.

To contact me, go to
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/
and click on "Contact" near the bottom of the page. Make your e-mail subject line "AIM and WordPad:

AIM Stock/ETF Buy/Sell Transaction Calculator Updated

The AIM Stock/ETF Buy/Sell Fixed Commission Transaction Calculator Program has been updated to v7.0.

A major new feature that has been added is the ability to calculate the minimum possible AIM buy or sell transaction based on either a fixed dollar amount, a percentage of Portfolio Control, a percentage of the Stock Value, or on a percentage of the Total Account Value.

(Core Position Trading (CPT) includes the AIM method (Automatic Investment Management).

For details of the updated AIM calculator software program, see
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-stock-etf-transaction-calculator.htm
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-stock-etf-transaction-calculator.php

Effect of Commissions on Next AIM Buy Price and Amount

(Next SELL calculation results are similar, in the opposite direction.)

All calculations were made using the AIM Stock/ETF Buy/Sell Calculator Program.

Note that while these are the "first possible" transactions given the parameters specified, you may want to wait for a larger move from your last transaction and/or NET price.

======================
Blogger is not preserving the format of the AIM transaction calculation below, so see the FAQ at Effect of Commissions on Next AIM Stock/ETF Transaction Buy Prices and Amounts.

======================
Minimum Order: $120.00
Shares Held: 500
PoCo: $4000.00
SAFEs: 10%

Buy and Sell Commissions: $0 ("classic" or by-the-book [BTB] AIM)

Exact: Buy 17.38 shares at $7.05 (net price $7.05000)

Rounded: Buy 17 shares at $7.05 (net price $7.05000) <<-- Buy and Sell Commissions: $7.00 Exact: Buy 16.67 shares at $7.06 (net price $7.47988) Rounded: Buy 17 shares at $7.06 (net price $7.47176) Buy and Sell Commissions: $12.00 Exact: Buy 15.94 shares at $7.07 (net price $7.82280) Rounded: Buy 16 shares at $7.07 (net price $7.82000) <<-- Notice that while the transaction price difference between $0 and $12.00 commissions is only $0.02, the NET difference is $0.77 (11%). ====================== Minimum Order: $250.00 Shares Held: 500 PoCo: $4000.00 SAFEs: 10% Buy and Sell Commissions: $0 ("classic" or by-the-book [BTB] AIM) Exact: Buy 37.37 shares at $6.81 (net price $6.81000) Rounded: Buy 37 shares at $6.81 (net price $6.81000) <<-- Buy and Sell Commissions: $7.00 Exact: Buy 35.75 shares at $6.83 (net price $7.02578) Rounded: Buy 36 shares at $6.83 (net price $7.02444) Buy and Sell Commissions: $12.00 Exact: Buy 34.97 shares at $6.84 (net price $7.18314) Rounded: Buy 35 shares at $6.84 (net price $7.18286) <<-- Notice that while the transaction price difference between $0 and $12.00 commissions is only $0.03, the NET difference is $0.37 (5%). ====================== Blogger is not preserving the format of the AIM transaction calculation above, so see the FAQ at Effect of Commissions on Next AIM Stock/ETF Transaction Buy Prices and Amounts.

Other related articles are at the AIM Stock/ETF Trading Articles.

AIM Calculator Commission Default Settings

I noticed a $5.00 difference in the transaction cost of a stock BUY transaction the other day.

Good news, I was pleasantly surprised to see that Scottrade has reduced their LIMIT ORDER commissions to $7.00, to the same rate as their MARKET ORDER commissions.

With AIM, I am concerned with the NET transaction price per share, not just the order price.

AIM Fixed Commission Handling.

So this is good news.

I'm changing the default commissions of my AIM Stock/ETF Transaction Calculator from $12.00 to $7.00. Make sure your defaults are whatever your broker charges for limit orders.

(This is assuming you pre-calculate your buy and sell orders and put in GTC LIMIT ORDERS with your broker to sell some when the stock rises to your limit price, or to buy some when the stock declines to your limit price.)

BTW, I add a few pennies to the sell commission, as an estimate of what the transaction tax amounts to.

Hello -- Introduction

This blog will have notes and posts from me and users about the investing method described at Core Position Trading Overview.

About Buy Low Sell High with Core Position Trading (CPT)

Core Position Trading (CPT) as defined here is the buying and selling of increments of a stock, ETF, mutual fund, precious metals holding, whatever, with the object of increasing over time both the amount of the item and the amount of cash in the account dedicated to that item.

CPT is not an "all-or-nothing" method. Usually, a core position of the item is maintained at all times, and the buys and sells are usually of small amounts relative to the total holdings of the account.

Automatic Investment Management (AIM) is a CPT method popularized by Robert Lichello.

His book How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically! was first published in 1977 and is now in its Fourth Revised Edition (December 2001). It's available on Amazon.com for about $8.00. [2009-06-20]

Don't let the "hokey" title put you off. It details his intriguing method of "forcing" you to "buy low sell high".

This blog and resources discuss the finer points of Core Position Trading, and especially of AIM as discussed and used by me and others.

Contact Buy Low Sell High with Core Position Trading (CPT)

To send me an e-mail message, click on the link below.

contact-gblop@bean-d.com

As an anti-spam measure, when your e-mailing program starts after clicking the link, replace all instances of "p" in the "To:" address with "g". Continue with a meaningful subject and message.

Thanks for your interest; I'll be in touch soon.
DB

*** IMPORTANT ***

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